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Turkey’s Thugocracy by Burak Bekdil

  • As in 1908-1912, journalists are at the center of the government’s rage.”They [journalists from Turkey’s leading newspaper, Hurriyet] had never had a beating before. Our mistake was that we never beat them in the past. If we had beaten them…” — Abdurrahim Boynukalin, Member of Parliament from the governing AKP Party.

  • Last week, Ahmet Hakan, Hurriyet’s popular columnist, who has 3.6 million Twitter followers, was beaten by four men, three of whom happened to be AKP members. Hakan had to undergo surgery. Of the seven men involved in allegedly planning and carrying out the attack, six were immediately released.
  • The mob confessed to the police that they had been commissioned to beat Hakan on orders from important men in the state establishment, including the intelligence agency and “the chief.”
  • Hundreds of Turkish and Western politicians have publicly condemned the attack on Hakan. Except President Erdogan. Hardly surprising.

In 1908, the Ottoman Empire, under the new name of The Committee of Union and Progress (CUP), transformed into an autocratic establishment openly threatening its critics, especially journalists. In 1910, three prominent journalists, Hasan Fehmi, Ahmet Samim and Zeki Bey, who were leading opponents of the regime, were murdered. Several other journalists were beaten by thugs commissioned by the CUP.

In the election three years later, when the party lost its parliamentary majority, its leaders declared that election null and void. Soon mobs, often holding batons in their hands, “guarded” ballot boxes. Miraculously, the CUP vote rose to 94 percent! Victory, however, did not bring good fortune to the party. Its leaders would eventually have to flee the country.

More than a century later, in 2015, Turkey’s new autocratic regime, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since it came to power in 2002. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan practically declared the polls null and void, as in 1911, and called for renewed elections on Nov. 1. And just as in 1908-1912, journalists are at the center of the government’s rage.

On September 6 and 8, 2015, the offices and printing works of Turkey’s biggest daily, Hurriyet, were pelted with stones by hundreds of club-wielding fans of Erdogan. Video footage from the September 6 attack shows a Member of Parliament from the governing AKP Party, Abdurrahim Boynukalin, leading the mob. In a fierce speech in front of the newspaper’s building, Boynukalin vowed that the Dogan media company [which owns Hurriyet] will “get the hell out of Turkey” when Erdogan will have additional executive powers “whatever the electoral outcome on November 1 will be.”

Abdurrahim Boynukalin (center of left image), a Turkish Member of Parliament from the ruling AKP Party, leads a mob in front of the offices of Hurriyet newspaper, September 6, 2015. At right, the shattered windows of the building’s lobby, after the mob hurled stones.

Other video footage showed Boynukalin speaking to the same mob that attacked Hurriyet. Referring to Hurriyet columnist Ahmet Hakan [and to Hurriyet’s editor-in-chief, Sedat Ergin], Boynukalin says: “They had never had a beating before. Our mistake was that we never beat them in the past. If we had beaten them…”

Well, last week, Hakan was beaten by four men, three of whom happened to be AKP members. The popular columnist, who has 3.6 million followers on Twitter, had to undergo surgery for his broken nose and ribs. Members of the group confessed to the police that they had been commissioned by a former police officer to beat Hakan on orders from important men in the state establishment, including the intelligence agency and “the chief.” Of the seven men involved in plotting and carrying out the attack on Hakan, six were immediately released.

It remains a mystery who “the chief” is. It is highly unlikely that police will find any evidence that the attack was ordered by the AKP or by any of its senior members. Nor will any police or intelligence officer be indicted for ordering it.

Pro-Erdogan and pro-AKP vigilantism is increasingly popular among the party’s thuggish Islamist loyalists. Columnist Mustafa Akyol writes:

“[I]t is already worrying that the culture of political violence, which has dark precedents in Turkish history, is once again showing its ugly face … the campaign of hate that is going on in the pro-government media (and social media) inevitably calls for it. Deep down, the problem is that the AKP era, which began as a modest initiative for reform, has recently recast its mission as a historic ‘revolution.’ Just as in the French Revolution, it demonized the ‘ancien régime’ and the ‘reactionaries’ that supposedly hearken back to it. And now, just as in French Revolution, we see these ‘Jacobin’ ideas taking form in the streets in the hands of the vulgar ‘sans-culottes.'”

Since the beginning of the 20th century, Turkey has seen a collapsed empire, the birth of a modern state, a one-party administration, multi-party electoral system, several elections, three military coups, civil strife along political and ethnic lines, oppression by one ideology or another and dozens of political leaders. But one feature of Turkey’s political culture persistently remains: Violence.

President Erdogan is probably not too unhappy. He may think that the deeper the political polarization, the stronger his loyalists will feel attached to him. Hundreds of Turkish and Western politicians have publicly condemned the attack on Hakan. Except Erdogan. Hardly surprising.

Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Turkey’s Runaway Anti-Semitism by Burak Bekdil

  • When it comes to diplomatic conflict between Turkey and Israel or Turkish anti-Semitism, there is always an unusual optimism in the official language chosen by Israeli officials or Jewish community leaders. Facts on the ground are a little bit different than the rosy picture.

  • If Turkish Jews are “safe and secure” in Turkey, why do they feel compelled to protect their schools and synagogues with heavy security? Why do most synagogues in Istanbul look almost like a U.S. embassy in Baghdad or Islamabad?
  • Anti-Semitism in Turkey reached such intensity that even anti-Semitic Islamists were not immune to anti-Semitic smear campaigns.

The 74th anniversary of an embarrassing tragedy took place in Turkey on February 24, 2016.

The MV Struma was a small iron-hulled ship built in 1867 as a steam-powered schooner, but was later re-engined with an unreliable second-hand diesel engine. In 1941, it was tasked with safely transporting an estimated 781 Jewish refugees from Axis-allied Romania to Britain’s Mandatory Palestine. Between its departure from Constanta on the Black Sea on Dec. 12, 1941 and arrival in Istanbul on Dec. 15, the vessel’s engine failed several times. On Feb. 23, 1942 with her engine still not running but the refugees aboard, Turkish authorities towed the Struma from Istanbul through the Bosporus out to the Black Sea. On the morning of Feb. 24, the Soviet submarine Shch-213 torpedoed the Struma, killing all but one of the refugees and 10 crew aboard.

Until this year Turkey, one of the main culprits, had only once commemorated the victims. This year, official Turkey decided, should be the second time. A wreath and carnations were hurled at the sea in the shadow of the horrible event that took place decades ago.

At the commemoration ceremony at Sarayburnu harbor on the Bosporus were the head of Turkey’s Jewish community, Ishak Ibrahimzadeh, Chief Rabbi Isak Haleva and Istanbul’s governor, Vasip Sahin. In his speech, Sahin said: “We observe that the necessary lessons were not drawn from such tragedies.” He was right, at least from a Turkish point of view.

When it comes to diplomatic conflict between Turkey and Israel or Turkish anti-Semitism, there is always an unusual optimism in the official language chosen by Israeli officials or Jewish community leaders.

For instance, Ibrahimzadeh praised “recent steps by the Turkish state to mend history with the Jewish community.” Echoing the same optimism, chairman Stephen Greenberg and executive vice chairman Malcolm Hoenlein of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, assured that Turkey’s small (less than 17,000-strong) Jewish community feels “safe and secure” despite being placed in the middle of a political feud between Turkey and Israel — sparked first in 2009 by then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s clash with former Israeli President Shimon Peres at a World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Such optimism in official narratives is normal, especially because Ankara and Jerusalem have been privately negotiating a deal to end their hostilities and normalize their diplomatic relations. Non-constructive, let alone explosive, speeches from any state or non-state actor will not help diplomats from either side in their efforts to reconcile. All the same, facts on the ground are a little bit different than the rosy picture.

If Turkish Jews are “safe and secure” in Turkey, why do they feel compelled to protect their schools and synagogues with heavy security? Why do most synagogues in Istanbul look almost like a U.S. embassy in Baghdad or Islamabad?

On Jan. 20, 2016, a Turkish synagogue in an old Jewish neighborhood in Istanbul was vandalized with anti-Semitic graffiti days after holding its first prayer service in 65 years. Vandals painted the external walls of the Istipol Synagogue with the script: “Terrorist Israel, there is Allah.”

“Writing anti-Israel speech on the wall [outside] of a synagogue is an act of anti-Semitism,” said Ivo Molinas, editor-in-chief of Turkish Jewish newspaper, Şalom. “Widespread anti-Semitism in Turkey gets in the way of celebrating the richness of cultural diversity in this country.”

Less than a month after that, a column in the radical Islamist Turkish daily Vahdet claimed that the evolutionary theory of “the Jew” Charles Darwin contradicts Allah’s word in the Koran and that in actual fact, monkeys evolved from perverted Jews whom Allah cursed and punished.

Unsurprisingly, the columnist, Seyfi Sahin, is a staunch supporter of President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party. Sahin claims to be a physician, and argued that “Jews terrorize the world of science” and, “as a Jew, Darwin concocted his theory of evolution in order to turn Muslims away from their religion.” He further wrote:

“The aim of [Darwin’s] theory is to turn the non-Jews away from their religion, to harm their faith, and to make them suspicious about their religion. Darwin, being a Jew, believed, lived, and was buried according to his religion. His real targets were the Muslims … I believe that the gorillas and chimps living today in the forests of North Africa are cursed Jews. They are perverted humans that have mutated.”

There are no reports of Sahin being investigated or prosecuted under Turkey’s anti-racism laws. Not surprising. No such case has ever been heard of.

More recently, there was the curious case of Yusuf Kaplan, a Turkish Islamist columnist and a darling of Erdogan and his supporters — until he dared to criticize the government’s foreign policy. Kaplan a columnist for Yeni Safak, one of Erdogan’s favorite newspapers and one of his staunchest supporters, argued in a television appearance that the government’s foreign policy was incompatible with regional realities. So what? Not so difficult to guess.

Leading users on social media called for Kaplan’s death and accused him of killing another pro-government journalist, of being a British spy and of “collusion with the Jews.” Many called him a “Jewish stooge.” A Jewish stooge? The man has a remarkable record of making anti-Semitic statements, including his claim that “Jews rule the Western universities and world media and that their paranoia can reach barbaric, cruel and inhuman dimensions.”

Turkish newspaper columnist Seyfi Sahin (left), a staunch supporter of Turkey’s President Erdogan, wrote, “I believe that the gorillas and chimps living today in the forests of North Africa are cursed Jews. They are perverted humans that have mutated.” Yusuf Kaplan (right), another Turkish newspaper columnist, also has a record of making anti-Semitic statements. But when he criticized government policy, he was accused of being a “Jewish stooge.”

On the 74th anniversary of the Struma tragedy, anti-Semitism in Turkey reached such intensity that even anti-Semitic Islamists were not immune to anti-Semitic smear campaigns.

Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Turkey’s Oppression Machine by Burak Bekdil

  • The law stated that the homes and workplaces of those non-Muslims who could not afford the tax would be sequestered.


  • Under the AKP rule, Turkey’s dwindling Jewish community, now at around a mere 17,000, as well as other non-Muslims, have come under systematic intimidation from government politicians and bureaucrats. These non-Muslim minorities are also often the targets of racist attacks.

It was 1942 when, one day, Hayim Alaton, a Jewish yarn importer in Istanbul, received two payment notices from the tax office: He was asked to pay 80,000 liras in total — a fortune at that time. He ran to the tax office to object, but was told to pay the whole amount within 15 days. It was the infamous Wealth Tax, passed on Nov. 11, 1942 and it remained in effect for a year and a half until it was repealed on March 14, 1944.

The Wealth Tax exclusively targeted Turkey’s non-Muslims at a time when 300,000 Orthodox Greeks and 100,000 Jews were living in Istanbul (where total population was one million). The law stated that the homes and workplaces of those non-Muslims who could not afford the tax would be sequestered. Alaton was able to pay no more than 11,000 liras. That was the start of “black years,” as Alaton’s son, 15 years old at that time, would later recall.

Before long, the Alaton’s home and store were sequestered. The merchandise in the store and the goods in stock were sold at auction. Every item in the Alaton home, including kitchen utensils, bed frames and lamps were seized and sold too. The family of six was left only with mattresses. In later days, Alaton was taken from his home and sent to a tent camp in Istanbul where he was kept for two months. There were no meals, so his children would bring him whatever food they could find. One day the 15-year-old Ishak went to the camp and saw his father’s tent empty. The Turkish authorities had put Alaton, along with many others, on a train bound for the town of Askale, in eastern Turkey, where the non-Muslims would be forced to perform physical labor, in this instance, cutting stones on a hill. Alaton would stay in the forced-labor camp for two hard winters and one summer.

The family would not hear from him for a year. During that time, the bodies of 20 laborers at Askale were sent home. Ishak recalls his father’s return: “One evening, there was a knock on our door and an aged, wretched beggar stepped in. We wondered who he was and looked at him with curiosity. When he started to speak, we knew from his voice that he was my father.”

By that time, the family business had gone bankrupt and Alaton, in the grip of a crippling depression, could not leave home. He died running a small store where he sold a small inventory of imported goods.

In a 2011 interview, Hayim Alaton’s son, Ishak, who, after turbulent years in his youth, would found one of Turkey’s most successful industrial conglomerates, would praise Turkey’s ruling Islamists, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) by saying “the AKP has taken many positive steps to improve the situation of non-Muslim minorities.”

Unfortunately, that was a premature conclusion, as the younger Alaton would learn four years later.

Under the AKP rule, Turkey’s dwindling Jewish community, now at around a mere 17,000, as well as other non-Muslims, have come under systematic intimidation from government politicians and bureaucrats. These non-Muslim minorities are also often the targets of racist attacks.

Now 90, Ishak Alaton, although widely respected as “a man of wisdom” by the Turks — Jews, Christians and Muslims alike — is under scrutiny on charges of supporting terror.

An Ankara prosecutor is inspecting claims that Alaton has provided financial and moral support to what the state bureaucracy calls “the parallel structure” — a movement led by an influential U.S.-based Muslim cleric, Fethullah Gulen. Gulen and his movement were staunch AKP allies until the end of 2013, when the two engaged in an all-out war. The Gulenists accuse Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP of autocratic rule and corruption, and the Turkish government has declared the Gulenists a terror organization that aims to topple the government.

Ishak Alaton (left), a 90-year-old Turkish Jewish industrialist, is being investigated on charges of “supporting terror,” for providing financial and moral support to Fethullah Gulen (right), a U.S.-based Muslim cleric who is a political rival of Turkey’s president.

The charges against Alaton are based on his 2013 biography, “Unnecessary Man,” and were leveled after a former colleague of Alaton’s filed a criminal complaint against him. Some passages in the book refer to Alaton’s support for the Gulen movement schools outside Turkey, particularly one in Moscow. The probe has been ongoing for about a year.

This is the passage from the biography that the prosecutors may be thinking is an evidence of the 90-year-old man’s support for terror:

“This [Gulen] movement is a great educational movement. It educates people. It changes people’s outlook on life and makes them into better equipped, worldly people. The Gulen movement is involved in educational efforts. I’ve seen the outcome of such efforts with my own eyes. Once in Moscow we, as a company, participated in the establishment of such a school. We managed to acquire the land from the Moscow municipality and the school began there. The Russian officials asked us, ‘What are they trying to do? We don’t know them, what do you say?’ [My business partner] Uzeyir Garih and I vouched for them, we told them [the Russians], ‘Don’t worry, let them build the school.'”

When it comes to persecution Turkey’s state machinery never changes.

Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Turkey’s Official “Cocktail Terror” by Burak Bekdil

  • In its latest attack in Turkey, ISIS used a child suicide bomber to attack a wedding ceremony. More than 50 victims were killed, of whom 26 were less than 18 years old.

  • This is premeditated, officially-tolerated murder. Evidence? Two opposition parties appealed to parliament five times asking for a parliamentary investigation into ISIS and its activities in Turkey. All five requests were rejected by the votes of the ruling AKP Party, Erdogan’s powerful political machine.
  • The opposition claims SADAT International Defense Consultancy, which was established by soldiers dismissed from the military due to Islamist activities, offers ISIS operatives training in “intelligence, psychological warfare, sabotage, raiding, ambushing and assassination.” Erdogan this month appointed the owner of SADAT, retired Brigadier General Adnan Tanriverdi, as his chief presidential advisor.

Failing to name Islamic terror has cost Turkey hundreds of lives and will likely cost it hundreds more, as the country’s leaders — and many others, especially in the West — are still too demure to call Islamic terror by its name. Without a realistic diagnosis, the chances of a successful treatment are always close to nil, and Turkey’s leaders stubbornly remain on the wrong side of the right diagnosis.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s theory that “there is no Islamic terror,” coupled with his persistent arguments that Islamist radicals hit Europe because of Islamophobia in the Western world, are not only too remote from reality but have now become a curse in his own country.

As early as 2014, cars began to be seen in the streets of Istanbul sporting the black flag of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The same year, Islamists opened a shop selling T-shirts featuring the same flag. ISIS-related magazines went ahead with open hate content even though, in March 2014, ISIS spilled its first blood in Turkey when an ISIS team ambushed a police checkpoint and killed one police officer, one soldier and one civilian.

In its first suicide attack on June 5, 2015, ISIS targeted a pro-Kurdish rally in Diyarbakir, killed four people and injured 279. It targeted, once again, a pro-Kurdish gathering in July 2015 in Suruc, a small town bordering Syria, killed more than 30 people and injured more than 100.

When, in October 2015, Islamists attacked the main train station in Ankara and killed more than 100 civilians in the worst terror attack in Turkey’s history, Turkish officials were once again too demure to blame it on radical Islamists. Instead, they invented an unconvincing concept, “cocktail terror,” putting the blame on a mixture of various terror groups.

In a span of just one year, starting with the Suruc suicide bomb attack in July 2015, ISIS terror attacks in Turkish soil have killed 265 people and injured 1,256.

In its latest attack in Turkey on August 21, ISIS did something it had not done before: it used a child suicide bomber with explosives detonated by a remote controller. The target was a wedding ceremony in the southern city of Gaziantep; most of the victims were children, like the suicide bomber himself. More than 50 victims were killed, of whom 26 were less than 18 years old. Two of the victims had just turned four.

On August 21, ISIS terrorists used a child suicide bomber to kill more than 50 people, mostly children, at a wedding in Gaziantep. (Image source: ABC News video screenshot)

This is premeditated, officially-tolerated murder. Evidence? Between Aug. 14, 2014 and June 29, 2016, two opposition parties, the social democrat Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), appealed to parliament five times asking for a parliamentary investigation into ISIS and its activities in Turkey. All five requests were rejected by the votes of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan’s powerful political machine. Why would a ruling party vote down an investigation request into a barbaric terror group that has killed hundreds of people in its own country? But there is more.

In July, slightly more than a month before the ISIS’s child bomber was blown up along with more than 50 others in Gaziantep, a court in the same city reduced the jail sentence of an ISIS militant due to “good conduct.” Good conduct?! The man did not even stand before the court, as the police were unable to apprehend him.

At the end of June, the main opposition party, CHP, made a parliamentary inquiry into the activities of an Istanbul-based defense company accused of having links to ISIS. The opposition claims the SADAT International Defense Consultancy, established in the early 2000s by soldiers dismissed from the military due to Islamist activities, offers “irregular warfare training” in various fields including “intelligence, psychological warfare, sabotage, raiding, ambushing and assassination.” The inquiry said: “…that special commissioned and non-commissioned officers have begun working at this company with high salaries, and that in camps irregular warfare training has been given to ISIS and its derivatives.”

SADAT’s owner and chief official is retired Brigadier General Adnan Tanriverdi widely known for his close relations with Erdogan and the AKP.

Since the opposition made the parliamentary inquiry, it has not heard from the government benches about its request for an investigation into SADAT. But, after the inquiry, the government made a move. In August Erdogan appointed Tanriverdi as his chief presidential advisor.

Turkey’s war with radical jihadists is a too demure and reluctant one — if not fake altogether.

Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Turkey’s Islamist Factory Settings by Burak Bekdil

  • Normalization of relations with Israel could bolster efforts to balance Iran’s growing regional clout.

  • “In the Middle East, everyone at some point realizes that there is a bigger enemy than the big enemy.” – Israeli official.

  • But in the Middle East, reason does not always overcome holiness.


Israel-bashing and the systematic fueling of anti-Semitic behavior have become a Turkish political pastime since Turkey downgraded its diplomatic ties with Israel in 2010. There has been, though, relative tranquility and reports of a potential thaw since June 7, when Turkey’s Islamist government lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since it rose to power in 2002.

In August, a senior Hamas official, apparently hosted for some time by an all-too affectionate Turkish government, vanished into thin air. Saleh al-Arouri, a veteran Hamas official and one of the founders of its military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, was forced to leave Israel in 2010, after serving more than 15 years in prison. After his release, he was believed to be living in Istanbul. In August 2014, at a meeting of the International Union of Islamic Scholars in Istanbul, al-Arouri said that Hamas was behind the kidnapping of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank, an incident that triggered a spiral of violence in Gaza and Israel that summer.

A year later, Turkish diplomatic sources said that “Arouri was not in Turkey” although they did not confirm or deny earlier reports that Turkey had deported him.

Earlier than the news about Arouri, top diplomats from the two countries had secretly met in Rome. Dore Gold is Israel’s Foreign Ministry Director-General, and his Turkish counterpart was Feridun Sinirlioglu, then the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s undersecretary. Sinirlioglu is a career diplomat, not an Islamist political appointee. Between 2002 and 2007, he served as Turkey’s ambassador to Israel.

On June 24, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed ongoing talks with Israel, aimed at reaching some form of rapprochement, while suggesting that undue emphasis should not be placed on the gatherings.

Fast-forward to August: Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu forms an interim cabinet to take the country to snap elections on Nov. 1, and Sinirlioglu becomes Turkey’s new Foreign Minister. One of the first to send his congratulations to Sinirlioglu was Dore Gold.

In early September, Gold, a long-time advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,said: “I have to say that many people in different capitals asked about the Rome meeting and … I heard the highest praise whether I was in a European capital or speaking to American officials about his diplomatic skills …Turkey is very lucky to have him [Sinirlioglu] as foreign minister. He is a first-class diplomat.”

The Israeli press reported in June that Israel’s Foreign Ministry Director-General Dore Gold (R) held a secret meeting in Rome with Feridun Sinirlioglu (L) Turkey’s then Foreign Ministry Undersecretary (today Foreign Minister).

Apparently, reason had gained a bit of the upper hand after Turkey’s parliamentary elections in June. It is, no doubt, in the best national (and rational, too) interests of both countries, which once were best regional allies — before the Islamists rose to power in Turkey in 2002. A normalization of relations with Israel could bolster efforts to balance Iran’s growing regional clout. It could as well help keep Gaza relatively peaceful, stable and economically more viable.

But in the Middle East, reason does not always overcome holiness. Israel, Jews, Hamas and “our Palestinian brothers” remain a few of the most popular themes in Islamist election rallies — the best ones to exploit a Muslim voter base.

Things between the two countries look relatively calm these days, but a fresh round of attacks from Turkey’s Islamist politicians during election rallies are not unlikely.

An Israeli official was right when he told this author recently: “In the Middle East, everyone at some point realizes that there is a bigger enemy than the big enemy.”

Turkey and its best regional (Sunni) ally, Qatar, may have come to understand that they are paying a price for unconditionally supporting Hamas, and sometimes abusing this support. Apparently, there are some signs of a potential change in the Turkish-Qatari solidarity with Hamas. But caution is required. No one is sure yet if those signs indicate a medium-term policy change.

Jerusalem is not unaware of the risks of reaching premature conclusions about any normalization with Turkey. Prime Minister Netanyahu has every reason not to trust Turkey’s dominant pro-Sunni, pro-Hamas and anti-Israel Islamist polity. He knows that any normalization may collapse in a matter of months if the Turkish Islamists decide to start a new fight with Israel. Both countries would look ridiculous if they have to withdraw their ambassadors once again two months, say, after they were appointed. Turkish behavior in the event of normalization would be unpredictable. But it would also depend very much on the election results on November 1.

If, as in June’s elections, PM Davutoglu’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) fails to win a parliamentary majority, it will be forced into a coalition government with one of the three opposition parties, with the social-democratic Republican People’s Party (CHP) appearing as a likely prospective partner. The AKP will have to compromise on its Islamist policies, including foreign policy — particularly in the Middle East. The AKP would be reluctant to surrender foreign policy entirely to any coalition partner but may be lured into a compromise in which someone such as Sinirlioglu (the experienced diplomat and presently interim foreign minister) may be the solution satisfying everyone.

But the opposite is also true. In case of a landslide AKP victory on November 1 and a single-party government, all Middle East policy, including relations with Israel, could have to be reset to the Islamist factory settings.

Perhaps the headline in Zaytung, an online humor magazine and a Turkish response to The Onion, explains it all: “The Foreign Ministry, which has neglected its routine work due to civil strife in the country, gave signs of a return to normality when it condemned Israel.”

Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

 

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