While U.S. policymakers, media talking-heads and many think tank pundits are fixated on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and Tehran’s nuclear weapons projects, the focus of Iran’s power-brokers is on regime continuity and leadership succession. Iran’s next parliamentary elections are scheduled for February 26, 2016.

The process of selecting the successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei already seems underway. Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997) hinted as much, according to a Reuters report. The aging first generation of the 1979 Islamic Revolution’s leadership are determined to maintain regime stability during the transition to a new rahbar (leader) upon the retirement or death of Khamenei.

Those institutions that will play a large role in the selection process include: ranking members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), senior clergy in Qom, members of the Assembly of Experts,[1] and the Council of Guardians.[2]

President Hassan Rouhani, government cabinet officers, and deputies of the Majles (consultative assembly/parliament) usually have little to no influence in the vetting process of candidates.

Some Western media commentary, which can be inclined to mirror imaging — assuming “they” are like “us” — has hinted that former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is a serious contender. This is not so. The 81-year-old Rafsanjani was long ago pushed to the side by political and religious hardline acolytes of the current leadership. As early as 2011, when Rafsanjani’s personal website registered growing popularity in a poll, it was shut down. Another sign of Rafsanjani’s marginalization is the decision by the Council of Guardians to disqualify him from submitting his candidacy for the Presidency in the 2012 presidential election. Still another is the dearth of coverage of the former president in Iran’s media. In one recent case, Iranian state television and the regime’s leading daily newspaper, Keyhan, appeared to excise his photo from a public event where he sat near Khamenei. Another sign is his reduced role in the 82-member Assembly of Experts, which holds its next election in February 2016. Rafsanjani was also defeated by Khamenei ally, Ayatollah Mohamad Yazdi, in a recent election for the Assembly’s Speakership.

The likely successor to Khamenei will be chosen from a vetting process that is probably already underway.

The next Supreme Leader likely will be selected from the following pools of talent: Tehran Friday Prayer Leaders, the Council of Guardians, and Iran’s Judiciary.

But if Khamenei’s demise is sudden, an interim leader may be selected from Qom’s several senior Ayatollahs.

The next Supreme Leader, however, is likely to be just as colorless as the present occupant of the office: the IRGC, ranking intelligence officers, and the regime’s plutocrats do not want to elevate anyone with an independent power base or a charismatic personality. They do they want someone like Rafsanjani who is independently wealthy and considered politically unreliable by hardliners. Nor will they be content with the radical hardline cleric, Mesbah Yazdi, who once was close to former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However, Yazdi has been of late an exuberant, public supporter of Khamenei, especially since Ahmadinejad’s fall from favor.

One candidate who may be a serious contender for the office of Supreme Leader is the current chief of Iran’s judiciary, Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani. Nevertheless, whoever is ultimately selected, regime stability at least for the next few years seems assured: anti-regime networks remain shredded after the 2009 nationwide protests were violently suppressed.

Out with the old, in with the new? A serious contender to replace Ayatollah Khamenei (center) in the office of Supreme Leader is Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani (right). (Image source: Office of Supreme Leader)

Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve, where he was a Military Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Israel.

• The Iranians are also believed to have supplied their new terrorist group in the Gaza Strip with Grad and Fajr missiles that are capable of reaching Tel Aviv.

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• The leader of Al-Sabireen, Hisham Salem, is a former commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip. His activities and rhetoric have worried many in Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who fear that his group is beginning to attract many of their followers.
• Salem has been accused by many Palestinians of helping Iran spread Shia Islam inside the Gaza Strip, where all Muslims belong to the rival Sunni denomination.
• This, of course, is bad news for [Palestinian President Mahmoud] Abbas, who is now watching as many of his former loyalists have come onto Iran’s payroll and are sharing its radical ideology.
• Many Palestinians and Arabs in the region are already voicing concern. The last thing Abbas, Egypt’s President Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah need is another Iranian terror group such as Hezbollah in the Middle East.
• It now remains to be seen whether the Obama Administration and other Western powers will wake up and realize that the Iranians are continuing to fool them, not only regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, but also concerning its territorial ambitions in the Middle East.
• Unless the U.S. and Western powers realize that Iran remains a major threat to world peace, Al-Sabireen and other terrorist groups will one day manage to establish a UN-recognized Palestinian state that would pose an existential threat to Israel and destabilize the entire Middle East.

The nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers has paved the way for the Iranians to resume their efforts to spread their influence throughout the Middle East.

As the Obama Administration and the rest of the international community choose to look the other way, Iran evidently feels that this is the appropriate time to meddle in the internal affairs of Arabs and Muslims

Iran’s main goal, from all appearances, is to dominate the entire Middle East by destroying Israel and most of the Arab and Islamic regimes that are considered too “moderate” and “pro-West.” So far, thanks to the indifference of the Obama Administration and most Western countries, the Iranians seem to be marching in the right direction toward achieving their goal.

Iran is already deeply involved in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. In recent months, the Iranians have also returned to the Palestinian arena, this time through a new group called Al-Sabireen Movement For Supporting Palestine. Translated into English, Al-Sabireen means “The Patient One.”

The new Iranian-backed Al-Sabireen was established in wake of tensions between Iran and its two former allies in the Gaza Strip: Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis four years ago, relations between Tehran and Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been strained. The refusal of Hamas and Islamic Jihad publicly to support Iran’s ally, President Bashar Assad, in his fight against the Syrian opposition, has resulted in the expulsion of Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders from Syria. It has also prompted the Iranians to cut off financial aid to the two groups, an abandonment that has left them facing a severe and unprecedented crisis — the worst in more than two decades.

Al-Sabireen, whose emblem is identical to that of another Iran proxy, Hezbollah, so far has about 400 followers in the Gaza Strip. Each one receives a monthly salary of $250-$300, while the senior officials of the group get at least $700.

Although Al-Sabireen has been operating in the Gaza Strip for several months now, its name surfaced two weeks ago when one of its top military commanders was shot and killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The man, Ahmed Sharif Al-Sarhi, was responsible for a series of shooting attacks on Israel before he was fatally shot by IDF snipers along the border with the Gaza Strip.

Al-Sabireen commander Ahmed Sharif Al-Sarhi (left) was responsible for a series of shooting attacks on Israel before he was fatally shot two weeks ago by IDF snipers along the border with the Gaza Strip. The Iranians are also believed to have supplied their new terrorist group in the Gaza Strip with Grad and Fajr missiles (right) that are capable of reaching Tel Aviv.

Palestinian sources said that most of the Al-Sabireen terrorists are former disgruntled members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The sources said that Iran has been supplying Al-Sabireen with various and new types of weapons that are being used to attack Israel. According to the sources, Al-Sarhi was killed by the IDF while he was trying to fire from a new Steyr HS .50 long-range sniper rifle he had recently received from the Iranians.

The Iranians are also believed to have supplied their new terrorist group in the Gaza Strip with Grad and Fajr missiles that are capable of reaching Tel Aviv.

The leader of Al-Sabireen, Hisham Salem, is a former commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip. His activities and rhetoric have worried many in Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who fear that his group is beginning to attract many of their followers.

Two weeks ago, unidentified assailants stabbed and moderately wounded Salem shortly after he gave a newspaper interview in the northern Gaza Strip. Although no group has claimed responsibility, it is widely believed that the assailants belong to either Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Salem has been accused by many Palestinians of helping Iran spread Shia Islam inside the Gaza Strip, where all Muslims belong to the rival Sunni denomination.

Al-Sabireen is also believed to have succeeded in recruiting scores of militiamen belonging to President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah faction in the Gaza Strip. These militiamen have gone to the Iranian-backed group mostly for financial considerations. This, of course, is bad news for Abbas, who is now watching as many of his former loyalists have come onto Iran’s payroll and are sharing its radical ideology.

Iran’s presence in the Gaza Strip — this time through Al-Sabireen — is bad news not only for Israel, but also for many Palestinians and Arabs in the region. The Egyptians, who have been waging a relentless war on Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip and Sinai, are already voicing concern over Iran’s new Palestinian proxy. The last thing Abbas, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah need is another Iranian terror group similar to Hezbollah in the Middle East.

It now remains to be seen whether the Obama Administration and other Western powers will wake up and realize that the Iranians are continuing to fool them, not only regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, but also concerning its territorial ambitions in the Middle East. Iran’s Al-Sabireen group states that its main goal is to “eliminate the Zionist entity.”

On its way to achieving its goal, the group will also kill Arabs and Muslims who do not share its objectives and ideology. It also seeks to kill Israel’s Western friends, especially those living in the U.S. and Europe. Unless the U.S. and Western powers realize that Iran remains a major threat to world peace, Al-Sabireen and other terrorist groups will one day manage to establish a UN-recognized Palestinian state that would pose an existential threat to Israel and destabilize the entire Middle East.

• Clearly, if Iran continues to develop long range launch capabilities, it could choose destabilize the entire Middle East region, and directly threaten Israel and Europe.The rapid development of an advanced system such as the Bavar-3 demonstrates that the Iranians are capable of developing not only defensive but also offensive weapons systems, even as Iran remains prohibited under the present UNSC Resolution 2231 (2015) from developing surface-to-surface nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.

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• If Iran continues to develop offensive nuclear and long-range ballistic missile capabilities, the international community may be in for an unpleasant surprise — awakening to find a nuclear-armed Iran protected by sophisticated, hardened air defences. By then, the balance of power in the Middle East will be altered irreversibly.

• Tehran has not become a rational and moderate state. Iran has instead become more empowered and emboldened to pursue its revolutionary ideals of anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism.When it comes to the JCPOA nuclear deal — which Iran never signed — Iranian leaders violated the deal three times in the past year.

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• UN Security Council resolution 2231 is clear. The resolution “calls upon Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.”
• Iran also increased strategic and tactical cooperation with Russia to undermine US interests, strengthening the Russia-China-Iran axis.
• Iran ranks top in the world for executions per capita. Iran also became the world’s leading executioner of juveniles.

• “You [Iranian officials] will be in the future etched in the annals of history as criminals. The greatest crime committed under the Islamic Republic, from the beginning of the Revolution until now, which will be condemned by history, is this crime [mass executions] committed by you.” — Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who was one of the founding fathers of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

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• Intriguingly, all those people whom Montazeri is addressing and warning in the audio, currently appear to enjoy high positions.Iran’s massacre of more than 30,000 people was recently disclosed by Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri’s son, Ahmad, a moderate cleric, who posted a confidential audio of his father on his website but was ordered by Iran’s intelligence service to remove it.