The regime, its proxies and terror groups are celebrating, elated to have defeated the efforts of the “Great Satan” to force accommodations. The United States’ framework agreement — the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU, signed yesterday by US President Donald J. Trump — extends a ceasefire for 60 days; removes US blockade; reopens the Strait of Hormuz to shipping; allows Iran to resume and expand its oil sales, keep its enriched uranium and centrifuges; promises up to $300,000 billion –who cares from whom — then to negotiate everything else.
The MOU also links Lebanon, a sovereign country that has nothing to do with Iran. The MOU is a deal to talk about a deal. No wonder the regime is celebrating….That was the US response to blackmail and terrorism. Just as the US was winning, it once again chose to lose.
“Iran’s new rational leader” is already calling for “the liberation of Jerusalem.” The Islamic Republic is a system rooted in anti-Americanism, anti-Semitism, and hostility toward its own people – and Trump is allowing it not only to remain in place, but to dig its hooks in even deeper.
Iran’s regime has repeatedly shown that it cannot be trusted with any deal… The regime will remain staunchly anti-American, anti-Semitic — and hostile to the Iranian people. It continues to label the United States and Israel as its enemies. Its core ideology has not shifted one bit — and the probability of it shifting must be close to zero.
As the Trump Administration undoubtedly knows, the Iranian regime cannot be trusted with any agreement.
Time and again, Iran’s regime has signed or verbally committed to deals — on nuclear issues, regional de-escalation, or economic promises — only to pursue its own agenda in secret. Whether enriching uranium covertly, supporting terrorist proxies, or advancing its ideological goals, the regime says or signs whatever is necessary to secure relief, then goes about doing whatever it wants. Its pattern of deceit and evading commitments is by now legendary
The regime, its proxies and terror groups are celebrating, elated to have defeated the efforts of the “Great Satan” to force accommodations.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signed on June 17 by US President Donald J. Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian — extends a ceasefire for 60 days; removes the US blockade; reopens the Strait of Hormuz to shipping; allows Iran to resume oil exports and keep its enriched uranium; and promises Iran $300 billion for reconstruction and investment — who cares from whom — and negotiations for everything else.
The MOU also includes Lebanon, a sovereign country that has nothing to do with Iran. The MOU is a deal to talk about a deal. No wonder Iran’s regime is celebrating. They get their uranium, indefinite delays, hundreds of billions of dollars and a path to recovery to “export the revolution” and terrorize the world again the minute Trump leaves office. Trump had Iran’s brutal military dictatorship on its knees; he just awarded it a long, rich life. That was the US response to blackmail and terrorism. Just as the US was winning, it once again chose to lose.
It is not exactly a secret what Iran’s regime will do with its billions, the lifted pressure and the breathing room Trump is giving it. The regime has not fundamentally changed. “Iran’s new rational leader” is calling for “the liberation of Jerusalem.” The regime is a system rooted in anti-Americanism, anti-Semitism, and hostility toward its own people — and Trump is allowing it not only to remain in place, but to dig its hooks in even deeper. Executions of dissidents continue inside Iran. Even basic symbolic gestures of normalization with the United States — such as direct handshakes or commitments to open embassies— are absent. The regime has not provided one signal that it plans to shift away from confrontation.
Iran still continues to affirm its support for the so-called “axis of resistance.” It will continue to support groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, providing funding, weapons, and guidance.
With new revenues arriving, the regime will likely focus on replenishing and rearming its military capabilities. Ballistic missiles, attack drones, and related weapons systems damaged during the recent war will be restored and expanded. Drone development will receive further investment as a superior asymmetric tool to project the regime’s power.
A substantial portion of the increased income will almost certainly flow to Iran’s proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. They have been instrumental in extending Iranian influence and avoiding direct costs to Tehran while pressuring adversaries such as Israel.
Most critically, the regime has bought itself valuable time. The 60-day window, with possibilities for extension, fits a familiar pattern of delays and negotiations designed to outlast pressure. From Tehran’s perspective, survival through the current U.S. administration offers a path to a more accommodating international environment. The regime believes it has won. It remained undefeated by a major power. The message to terrorists is to keep going: it works.
Emboldened by its resilience and survival, the regime will demand from shipping companies “fees” for passing through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly triggering the end of freedom of the seas worldwide. When Iran is charging “fees,” why shouldn’t everyone else? The regime must feel it has learned a powerful lesson: it can engage in provocative actions, extract concessions through pressure, get away with violations, and still remain firmly in power. It could pressure Gulf states into concessions or financial arrangements, leveraging fears of disruption from even limited drone or missile activity.
Long-term, the regime’s ideological drive still points toward vengeance against the United States and Israel, and escalating aggression against other perceived enemies once the constraints ease up. Nuclear weapons development will covertly resume as the regime calculates that no future American president will match the current level of resolve. By demonstrating that defiance yields rewards, the regime reinforces its own playbook of tactical patience and incremental aggression.
This outlook demands clear-eyed realism. Verifiable actions are essential: the regime must completely surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, completely dismantle its nuclear program, stop production of ballistic missiles, and totally sever support for terrorist proxies. Without ironclad enforcement mechanisms beyond three years, lifting pressure simply funds the same dangerous playbook that has destabilized the region for nearly 50 years.
Iran’s regime has repeatedly shown that it cannot be trusted with any deal. It uses every agreement to rearm, empower itself, and prepare to attack even harder. The regime will remain staunchly anti-American, anti-Semitic, and hostile to the Iranian people. It continues to label the United States and Israel as its enemies. Its core ideology has not shifted one bit — and the probability of it shifting must be close to zero.
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